Dengue in Sri Lanka, 2026: A Record Year, a Fragile Lull and an Untreated Disease

Sri Lanka recorded 100,127 dengue infections and 78 deaths by 1 October 2026. Cases in the comparable period are about 2.6 times the 2025 level. Monthly counts have fallen sharply since July, but the country is entering its second rainfall-linked transmission window (October to January). This brief sets out the scale and geography of the outbreak, the climate and service-delivery drivers, and the absence of a specific drug treatment, and proposes actions for the current lull.

1. Scale of the outbreak

The National Dengue Control Unit recorded 97,637 cases in its comparison period, against 37,858 in the same period of 2025: an increase of about 158%. Reported deaths imply a crude case fatality of roughly 0.08% (78 of 100,127), a figure to be read cautiously because reported cases depend on testing and notification.

When a $400 Million Fine Is a Rounding Error: What the TikTok Settlement Really Tells Us About the Global Data Economy

On Friday, the US Department of Justice announced that TikTok, ByteDance and affiliated entities had agreed to pay $400 million to resolve litigation alleging violations of the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act. Three hundred million dollars is due immediately; the remaining hundred million is contingent on a court vacating an earlier consent decree tied to TikTok's predecessor, Musical.ly. The Department called it one of the largest recoveries in the history of COPPA enforcement.

Read as a headline, this is a child-safety story. Read as a balance sheet entry, it is something else: a modestly priced adjustment to the cost structure of a business model built on data extracted from users who, in this case, were legally incapable of consenting to give it up. The gap between those two readings is where the real economics live.

A Third Publication – From Dependency to Resilience: A Defining Moment for Sri Lanka

I am pleased to share my third publication, “From Dependency to Resilience – A Defining Moment for Sri Lanka,” featured in the 11th Edition of Asia Pacific Business Magazine (May–July 2026).

This contribution examines Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and, more importantly, the structural vulnerabilities that continue to shape the country’s resilience. The article reflects on the need to move beyond temporary stabilization towards deeper structural transformation, particularly in areas such as export diversification, energy security, labour-market reforms and reduced external dependency.

For me, this publication is more than another article. It is part of an ongoing effort to contribute to the conversation on Sri Lanka’s economic transformation, development policy and long-term resilience from a development economics perspective.

GLOBAL SHOCKS, LOCAL RESILIENCE

Financing Sri Lanka's Capacity to Bounce Back Faster

Shocks no longer arrive one at a time. A conflict in one region unsettles shipping lanes and oil prices in another; a currency crisis in one economy tightens credit conditions in economies that had nothing to do with causing it. For small, trade-dependent, import-reliant economies such as Sri Lanka, this is not an abstract risk. It is the operating environment. The escalation in the Middle East through 2025 and into 2026 is only the latest reminder of how quickly external shocks can travel into household budgets, small business cash flows and public finances thousands of kilometres away.

A recent op-ed by UNDP's Kanni Wignaraja and Azusa Kubota, published in the Sunday Times, made a point worth sitting with: development does not stop when a shock hits. It changes shape. It moves through supply chains, informal markets and community institutions in ways that are often invisible until a country tries to recover — and discovers how much its recovery speed depends on choices made long before the shock arrived. That framing is a useful one for Sri Lanka, a country that has spent the past four years relearning, the hard way, what economic fragility feels like.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2026

Five Structural Signals from Geopolitical Shock to Sustainable Transformation

A research-based article for policy, business and development audiences

Based primarily on UN DESA, World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2026

 

EXECUTIVE MESSAGE The central economic story of 2026 is not simply slower GDP growth. It is the interaction of a geopolitical energy shock with an already constrained global policy environment. The resulting combination—lower growth, renewed inflation, tighter external financing, weaker fiscal space and elevated uncertainty—creates asymmetric risks across economies. For developing countries, the key challenge is to protect real incomes and development expenditure without destabilising macroeconomic credibility. At the same time, the shock strengthens the strategic rationale for energy diversification, domestic productive capacity and investment in resilience.

ACCELERATING ACTION FOR THE SDGs Batticaloa District, Sri Lanka — 2030

A data-driven strategic roadmap for inclusive growth, productive transformation and resilience

Policy Research Brief | August 2026

Executive Summary

Batticaloa enters the second half of the SDG decade with a paradox: substantial natural, human and locational assets coexist with weak labour-market outcomes and limited local value capture. The 2024 Census records a district labour force of 191,235, with 172,013 employed and 19,222 unemployed; the unemployment rate of 10.1% was substantially above Sri Lanka’s 6.0%. Female labour-force participation was only 20.8%, compared with 64.3% for males, revealing a large underused human-capital resource. At the same time, Batticaloa retains strong agricultural, fisheries, tourism and enterprise potential. The policy challenge is therefore not simply poverty reduction; it is structural transformation.

The Future of Development Economics in an AI-Driven World

Transforming Growth, Productivity, and Inclusive Development

Executive Summary

Artificial intelligence has moved from experimental technology to a general-purpose driver of economic transformation, and development economics is being rewritten as a result. Global corporate AI investment reached $252.3 billion in 2024 and, per Stanford's 2026 AI Index, surged to $581.7 billion in 2025 — yet more than three-quarters of that private capital remains concentrated in the United States a
lone. This asymmetry sits atop deeper divides: 2.2 billion people remain offline globally, five-sixths of them in low- and middle-income countries, and only 23% of people in low-income countries use the internet compared with 94% in high-income economies. At the same time, IMF and ILO research shows AI's labour-market exposure is lower in poorer countries (around 26–28% versus 60% in advanced economies) — a "double-edged" finding, since lower exposure also signals weaker readiness to capture AI's productivity dividend. This article examines how development economics is evolving in response: from digital public infrastructure in India and Estonia to AI-enabled health logistics in Rwanda, precision agriculture, and algorithmic public administration. It argues that the decisive variable is not technological access but institutional capability — governance, human capital, data infrastructure, and regulatory maturity. Without deliberate policy design, AI risks entrenching a new hierarchy of nations; with it, AI can become one of the most powerful accelerants of inclusive growth since the Green Revolution. The article closes with concrete recommendations for governments, development banks, the private sector, and universities.